AI Insight
This study analyzed the ecological vulnerability and coordination of forest, cropland, and water ecosystems in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2023 using an integrated framework combining multiple weighting methods and spatial analysis models. The research found that overall ecosystem vulnerability decreased over time, with high vulnerability areas transitioning to moderate and low levels, while ecosystem coordination gradually shifted from mild imbalance toward mild coordination. Land use intensity and aerosol optical depth were identified as the strongest drivers of ecosystem coupling coordination, while the influence of extreme high-temperature days declined over the study period.
Why it matters
The framework provides scientific guidance for balancing ecological security with economic development in one of China's most important economic regions, and offers a replicable methodology for assessing multi-system ecological vulnerability in other major river basins worldwide to support sustainable natural resource management.
Understand the Science
by Shuai Wu, Xuanhui Li, Xiaohuang Liu, Guanzhong Zeng, Wei Zhang, Xiaojing Liu, Qinghua Zeng, Jie Sun, Liang Ru, Hang Xing, Jiankun Kang
The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), China’s “golden waterway” and “green barrier”, relies on its “Forest–Cropland–Water” system for carbon sequestration, grain production, and water conservation. Tracking its vulnerability and coordination on a spatiotemporal scale reveals barriers to balancing ecological security with sustainable growth. Our study innovatively proposes a multi-system coupling evaluation framework. We integrate the Order relation (G1) method, the CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, and a game theory combination weighting to assess the ecological vulnerability of the “Forest–Cropland–Water” system across YREB. Using coupling coordination and spatial autocorrelation models, we then map the spatiotemporal pattern and spatial clustering characteristics of ecosystems interactions. Finally, geodetector method is employed to identify the principal drivers of coupling coordination. In 2000–2023, the ecological vulnerability of each ecosystem and the overall system exhibited a fluctuating downward trend. Spatial clustering of coupling coordination gradually weakened, and coupling types shifted from mild imbalance toward mild coordination. Concurrently, high vulnerability areas progressively transitioned to moderate and low vulnerability. Among the driving factors, Land use intensity and aerosol optical depth consistently exhibited the strongest explanatory power for the coupling coordination degree of the “Forest–Cropland–Water” system, whereas the influence of extreme high-temperature days markedly declined over time and the remaining selected factors played only subsidiary roles. This work provides a systematic framework for assessing future multi-system ecological vulnerability and coupling relationship, offering scientific guidance for promoting sustainable natural-resource management and inter-basin development.