AI Insight
This study analyzed mortality trends from 2012-2019 across 30 high-income countries and found that while some nations like Japan and Switzerland maintained declining death rates, many others experienced increases in specific age groups and causes of death. The increases were most pronounced in people aged 30-59 in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom, but cause-specific analysis revealed that most countries showed rising mortality in at least one disease category. Notably, deaths from ill-defined causes consistently increased across countries and age groups, alongside external causes like drug poisoning and self-harm in younger populations and chronic conditions like cardiovascular and liver diseases in middle age.
Why it matters
These findings challenge the assumption that mortality improvements are uniformly continuing across wealthy nations and suggest a widespread stalling of health progress that extends beyond previously recognized hotspots. The consistent rise in ill-defined causes of death indicates that health surveillance systems may be missing important contributors to mortality trends, which has implications for public health monitoring and intervention strategies.
⚠️ Preprint – Noch nicht peer-reviewed
Dieser Artikel wurde noch nicht von unabhängigen Experten begutachtet. Die Ergebnisse sind vorläufig und sollten mit Vorsicht interpretiert werden.
Background: Mortality rates have declined across most high-income countries for decades, but recent evidence suggests a slowdown in improvements or a shift to increasing mortality, particularly among working-age populations. The international distribution and drivers of these trends remain incompletely understood. Methods: Mortality trends during 2012-2019 were analysed using all-cause and cause-specific data from 30 countries. Trends were estimated via linear regression. K-means clustering with Dynamic Time Warping identified countries and ICD-10 chapters with similar temporal trajectories. Results: Trends varied substantially by nation. While Japan, Switzerland, and the Republic of Korea maintained consistent declines in all-cause mortality rates, increases were concentrated in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, most prominently in persons aged 30-59 years. However, cause-specific analysis showed that rising mortality was not confined to these countries: most countries exhibited increases in at least one ICD-10 chapter, with several European countries showing increases across multiple chapters. Across countries, a small set of causes recurred among increasing trends, including external causes (self-harm, drug poisoning) at younger ages and chronic conditions (cardiovascular and liver diseases, specific cancers) in mid-life. Notably, ill-defined causes of death consistently appeared among the increasing causes across countries and age groups. Conclusions: Mortality increases in the 2010s were geographically more widespread than previously recognized. The recurrent rise in mortality from ill-defined causes suggests that an important component of mortality change remains poorly characterized. These findings indicate that stalled health progress is a systemic challenge across many high-income societies.