AI Insight
This study introduces SIS-Vo, a mathematical modeling framework that combines epidemic spreading dynamics with opinion formation on signed social networks, where vaccine-related beliefs propagate differently across demographic subgroups. The authors derive equilibrium conditions for disease-free and endemic states, establishing stability criteria that incorporate both contact network structure and opinion-dependent vaccination rates. Numerical simulations demonstrate that targeted public health messaging, when routed through opinion dynamics, can shift populations toward disease-free equilibria even in the presence of misinformation affecting specific subgroups.
Why it matters
This framework offers public health authorities a theoretically grounded tool for designing vaccination campaigns that account for demographic heterogeneity and misinformation, potentially improving intervention strategies in polarized or segmented populations. The control-theoretic foundation makes it adaptable for real-time policy evaluation during outbreaks where vaccine hesitancy varies across communities.
arXiv:2512.06385v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Inspired by contagion models of social belief formation, we develop an epistemically-informed modeling framework, SIS-Vo, in which vaccine-related information propagates on a signed opinion network. Our model allows for heterogeneous treatment effects of policy messages across subpopulations through demographic-specific responses. We derive fixed-point characterizations of the healthy (disease-free) and endemic equilibria of this model, and obtain conditions for local stability of the healthy state in terms of the contact network and opinion-dependent vaccination capacities. Using numerical simulations, we illustrate how suitably targeted policy interventions, acting through opinion dynamics, can stabilize the epidemic process by moving the system towards the healthy regime. The SIS-Vo framework thus provides a natural basis for control-theoretic analysis of vaccination policies that remain robust even when misinformation targets specific subgroups.
Source: Demographic Dependence of Vaccine Adoption under Opinion Persuasion