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This study analyzed nitrogen use and protein supply across 130 countries over 30 years to identify patterns in agricultural nitrogen transitions during economic development. Rather than following a common pathway, countries showed divergent trajectories, with only 35.4% achieving absolute decoupling where protein supply increased while nitrogen surplus declined. The ability to reduce nitrogen pressure while increasing food production was not systematically linked to development level, though higher-income countries that succeeded typically reduced surplus from higher baseline levels and maintained higher absolute surpluses.
Why it matters
The findings challenge assumptions that agricultural development naturally leads to reduced environmental pressure and suggest that targeted policies rather than economic growth alone are needed to achieve sustainable intensification. Understanding these divergent pathways can help countries design context-specific strategies to increase food security while minimizing nitrogen pollution's impacts on water quality, climate, and ecosystems.
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⚠️ Preprint – Noch nicht peer-reviewed
Dieser Artikel wurde noch nicht von unabhängigen Experten begutachtet. Die Ergebnisse sind vorläufig und sollten mit Vorsicht interpretiert werden.
Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs underpin global food production, but increasing protein provision while limiting agricultural N pressure remains a major sustainability challenge. Here, we analyzed changes in N use, cropland N surplus and protein supply across 130 countries from 1992 to 2022 to assess whether recurrent N-transition patterns emerge during agricultural and economic development. Countries followed divergent trajectories rather than converging toward a common N transition. Absolute decoupling, with increasing protein supply and declining cropland N surplus, occurred in 35.4% of countries, while others showed relative improvements or increasing N pressure. Cropland N surplus rose more steeply as agricultural N inputs intensified. Long-term trajectories revealed contrasting forms of N-system reorganization, from persistently lower-pressure systems to intensifying systems. Absolute decoupling occurred across diverse economic contexts and was not systematically associated with development level. Higher-development countries that decoupled generally reduced N surplus from higher starting levels but still ended with higher surpluses. Thus, increasing protein provision while reducing N surplus is achievable, but improvement does not necessarily imply convergence toward low N pressure.
Source: Divergent nitrogen transition pathways during global agricultural development