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This study analyzes climatic trends in tropical dryland ecosystems globally from 2000 onwards using ERA-5 reanalysis and CHIRPS precipitation datasets. The findings reveal diverging regional patterns, with Neotropical, some Afrotropical, and Australasian tropical dry forests, savannas, and shrublands becoming hotter and drier, while Indomalayan, Oceanian, and Nearctic tropical dry forests are experiencing hotter and wetter conditions. These ecosystems are changing faster than the global average, potentially approaching critical resilience tipping points that could reduce their viable geographic range.
Why it matters
Tropical drylands support high biodiversity and human populations but are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Understanding these diverging regional trends is essential for developing targeted conservation strategies and predicting future ecosystem shifts that will affect both wildlife and communities dependent on these landscapes.
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⚠️ Preprint – Noch nicht peer-reviewed
Dieser Artikel wurde noch nicht von unabhängigen Experten begutachtet. Die Ergebnisse sind vorläufig und sollten mit Vorsicht interpretiert werden.
Tropical dryland ecosystems are highly biodiverse and fragmented and are experiencing significant anthropogenic and climatic changes. With increasing extremes in temperature and precipitation, coupled with significant alteration, these ecosystems are at greater risk of increased exposure and vulnerability to climatic change; however, little work has quantified the climatic shifts occurring within these ecosystems globally. Here, we aim to fill this gap by using the ERA-5 reanalysis and CHIRPS precipitation data to quantify changes in essential climatic variables in tropical drylands since 2000. Overall, we find that regional pressures differ, with tropical dry forests, savannas, and shrublands becoming hotter and drier in the Neotropics and parts of the Afrotropics and Australasia. By contrast, the tropical dry forests in the Indomalayan, Oceania, and Nearctic are experiencing hotter and wetter conditions. Globally, though, these ecosystems are experiencing more change than the global average, suggesting they may be approaching tipping points in their resilience, ultimately shrinking the area where they can survive.