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Math predicts humans could go extinct in about 17,000 years

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Mathematicians have used statistical models to predict that human extinction could occur in approximately 17,000 years, though the specific cause of extinction is not identified in their analysis. The prediction is based on mathematical modeling rather than specific catastrophic scenarios, representing a probabilistic estimate of species survival duration.


This type of mathematical modeling helps scientists understand species longevity patterns and could inform long-term planning for human survival and risk mitigation. The work contributes to discussions about existential risks and the temporal scales relevant to human civilization planning.


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Some mathematicians have predicted when humanity’s downfall might occur—though the circumstances are unspecified

Source: Math predicts humans could go extinct in about 17,000 years