Medicine

Ocean patterns could forecast deadly skin disease outbreaks in North Africa

How the science connects

EpidemiologyClimate variabilityDisease ecology

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Researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and several Pasteur Institutes have discovered that climate variability patterns in the Atlantic Ocean can predict cutaneous leishmaniasis outbreaks in North Africa months before they occur. This connection between oceanic climate conditions and disease emergence provides a new forecasting tool for this parasitic infection that affects skin and mucous membranes.


Early prediction of leishmaniasis outbreaks could enable public health authorities in North Africa to implement preventive measures and allocate medical resources more effectively. This approach of using ocean climate patterns as disease predictors may also be applicable to forecasting other climate-sensitive infectious diseases in the region.


Climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean can help predict cutaneous leishmaniasis outbreaks in North Africa several months in advance. This is the finding of a new study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), together with researchers from the Pasteur Institutes of Tunisia, Morocco and France.

Source: Atlantic climate variability enables the prediction of leishmaniasis outbreaks in North Africa