AI Insight
The emerging El Niño event is predicted to reach a maximum sea surface temperature anomaly of +3.9°C, which would significantly exceed the previous record of +2.75°C set during the 2015-16 El Niño. This natural climate phenomenon, which occurs every 2-7 years as part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, is now occurring against a backdrop of human-induced climate change that may amplify its global impacts.
Why it matters
A super El Niño of this magnitude could trigger more severe weather extremes, including droughts, floods, and temperature anomalies across multiple continents, affecting agriculture, water resources, and public health systems. Enhanced preparedness and early warning systems are critical for vulnerable regions to mitigate potential humanitarian and economic consequences.
Understand the Science
Peak predictions of the emerging El Niño event suggest that it could reach a maximum monthly sea surface temperature anomaly of +3·9°C (median forecast),1 substantially surpassing the highest recorded magnitude of +2·75°C set by the 2015–16 El Niño.2 El Niño is a natural phenomenon, occurring every 2–7 years as part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, but it is happening against a background of human-induced climate change, which could result in more extreme global impacts over time.
Source: [Correspondence] Enhancing preparedness for the impending super El Niño