Astronomy & Space

Uncertainty Quantification Study of a Re-entry Breakup

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Atmospheric entryUncertainty quanti…Automated Transfer…

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This study investigates the breakup dynamics of spacecraft during atmospheric re-entry by modeling a breakup recorder device (REBR4) aboard the Edoardo Amaldi Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV3). Using uncertainty quantification methods, researchers analyzed how the recorder experiences hypersonic aerodynamic forces and collisions with debris from the disintegrating spacecraft. The analysis suggests that the recorder likely detached from the cargo bay before major breakup events occurred, rather than the spacecraft experiencing extremely high rotation rates during descent.


Understanding spacecraft breakup dynamics during re-entry is critical for space debris mitigation and improving the design of data collection systems that survive re-entry. This research provides insights that can enhance safety protocols for controlled spacecraft disposal and help predict debris dispersion patterns.


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Atmospheric entry 7 articles Explore Concept → Uncertainty quantification Concept coming soon Automated Transfer Vehicle Concept coming soon

Abstract: The uncertainty associated with breakup events that occur during atmospheric re-entry is severe. Limited attempts to gain a better knowledge of this environment have included the use of breakup recorder-type sensor capsules that are designed to escape the demising debris cloud and survive in order to transmit data. This work models a breakup recorder undergoing this process as a rigid body experiencing hypersonic aerothermodynamic loads alongside collision dynamics with components of the demising container vehicle. The re-entry of the Edoardo Amaldi Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV3) and the recorder placed on board, the Re-Entry Breakup Recorder 4 (REBR4) is studied in the present work. After a deterministic exploration of the nature of the dynamics of the problem, uncertainty quantification is performed to investigate the effects of initial spacecraft state, REBR detachment conditions and spacecraft fragmentation states. From this data, inferences about the nature of the real re-entry event indicate that detachment of the recorder from the cargo bay prior to main breakup events is more likely than the alternate hypothesis of the container vehicle experiencing high rotation rates.

Source: Uncertainty Quantification Study of a Re-entry Breakup