AI Insight
NOAA forecasts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, attributing this expectation primarily to the anticipated development of El Nino conditions, which increase upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic basin and thereby suppress tropical cyclone formation and intensification. Conversely, the same El Nino pattern is projected to enhance hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, where warmer sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear create more favorable conditions for storm development. This inverse relationship between Atlantic and Pacific hurricane activity during El Nino years is a well-established climatological pattern.
Why it matters
Seasonal hurricane forecasts inform emergency preparedness decisions, infrastructure planning, and resource allocation for coastal communities and government agencies across both ocean basins. Residents and policymakers in the Pacific region, often less accustomed to active hurricane seasons, may need to increase their level of preparedness in response to this forecast.
This year’s expected El Niño could hamper hurricanes in the Atlantic but boost them in the central and eastern Pacific
Source: NOAA predicts quieter Atlantic hurricane season for 2026—but the Pacific is another story