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This lifetable analysis of Queensland's adult population (aged 40+) found that if all residents matched the physical activity levels of the most active quartile, life expectancy could increase by 4.8 years to 88.3 years. The study used device-measured physical activity data and found a 9.7-year life expectancy difference between the least and most active quartiles, with each additional hour of moderate-intensity walking associated with approximately 3 hours of life gained. Step-based modeling showed a 7.1-year difference in life expectancy between scenarios where everyone achieved 12,000+ steps daily versus 2,000 or fewer steps daily.
Why it matters
These findings provide quantitative evidence for public health investment in physical activity promotion programs and infrastructure. The research demonstrates that the largest gains in life expectancy occur among the least active individuals, suggesting targeted interventions for sedentary populations could yield substantial population health benefits.
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⚠️ Preprint – Noch nicht peer-reviewed
Dieser Artikel wurde noch nicht von unabhängigen Experten begutachtet. Die Ergebnisse sind vorläufig und sollten mit Vorsicht interpretiert werden.
To estimate the life expectancy gains that could be realised from increases in Queenslanders physical activity (PA) levels. Design Lifetable analysis Setting, Participants We modelled the 2025 Queensland population aged [≥]40 years. Modelled scenarios We applied two approaches. In the first, we estimated life expectancy differences between device-measured PA quartiles, with quartile1 representing the least active and quartile 4 the most active. In the second, we compared observed device-measured PA levels in Queensland with scenarios in which all individuals moved to either [≥]12,000 steps/day or [≤]2,000 steps/day. We converted the steps per day by age group and PA quartile into equivalent daily minutes of moderate-intensity walking at 4.8 km/h. Additional scenarios were explored in sensitivity analyses. Main outcomes Changes in life expectancy, and total life-years gained over the lifetime of the modelled population. Benefits were also translated into minutes of life gained per additional hour walked. Results If all Queenslanders aged [≥]40 years were as active as the most active quartile, life expectancy at birth could be 88.3 years, an increase of 4.8 years above the life expectancy at observed activity levels. The life expectancy differences between individuals in the least active quartile and the most active quartile was 9.7 years. Achieving the activity level of the most active quartile would require individuals in the lowest activity quartile to undertake an additional 85.9 minutes/day of moderate-intensity walking, with each extra hour of PA associated with an average gain of approximately 3 hours (177 minutes) of life. In step-based modelling, life expectancy in the most active scenario (all achieving [≥]12,000 steps/day) was higher by {approx}7.1 years compared with the least active scenario (all at [≤]2,000 steps/day). Conclusions Increasing PA could yield meaningful gains in life expectancy for Queenslanders, with the largest gains seen in least active individuals. Our findings strengthen the case for prioritising investment in PA -promoting programs and environments.
Source: Physical activity and life expectancy in Queensland, Australia: a lifetable analysis